When holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) to EUR Hedged ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 140 months (from July 1997 to February 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 141 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 11.36%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-42.31%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+13.61% |
+62.09%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
21.78%
193 out of 886 |
-46.00%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1974 |
+11.04% |
+59.96%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2021 |
25.28%
224 out of 886 |
-25.84%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+11.49% |
+43.55%
Oct 1953 - Sep 1955 |
13.04%
114 out of 874 |
-29.37%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1974 |
+8.71% |
+41.00%
Oct 1953 - Sep 1955 |
18.54%
162 out of 874 |
-16.19%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
+11.31% |
+33.89%
Sep 1953 - Aug 1956 |
10.67%
92 out of 862 |
-18.42%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1974 |
+8.81% |
+31.44%
Sep 1953 - Aug 1956 |
15.31%
132 out of 862 |
-10.08%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+11.33% |
+27.35%
May 1952 - Apr 1956 |
9.88%
84 out of 850 |
-11.98%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+8.65% |
+26.07%
May 1952 - Apr 1956 |
16.59%
141 out of 850 |
-6.72%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+11.03% |
+28.30%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1955 |
7.28%
61 out of 838 |
-10.06%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974 |
+8.38% |
+26.60%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1955 |
17.78%
149 out of 838 |
-5.71%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 |
+10.86% |
+27.18%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1956 |
2.42%
20 out of 826 |
-10.35%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 |
+7.93% |
+24.95%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1956 |
13.56%
112 out of 826 |
-3.62%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 |
+10.58% |
+24.31%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1956 |
1.72%
14 out of 814 |
-7.89%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 |
+7.85% |
+21.85%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1956 |
10.32%
84 out of 814 |
-3.65%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+10.54% |
+21.42%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1998 |
1.25%
10 out of 802 |
-5.68%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+7.54% |
+19.86%
Jul 1951 - Jun 1959 |
12.34%
99 out of 802 |
-5.13%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
+10.35% |
+22.55%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1958 |
1.90%
15 out of 790 |
-7.10%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
+7.73% |
+20.70%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1959 |
12.53%
99 out of 790 |
-2.98%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+10.39% |
+21.60%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1959 |
2.19%
17 out of 778 |
-4.98%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+7.55% |
+19.37%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1959 |
11.83%
92 out of 778 |
-1.64%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
+10.30% |
+20.53%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1961 |
0.78%
6 out of 766 |
-3.55%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
+7.72% |
+18.57%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1961 |
10.97%
84 out of 766 |
+0.83%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
+10.25% |
+20.53%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1961 |
0.00%
0 out of 754 |
-1.06%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
+7.72% |
+18.35%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1961 |
4.64%
35 out of 754 |
+2.26%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009 |
+10.07% |
+18.20%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1963 |
0.00%
0 out of 742 |
-1.41%
Jun 1969 - May 1982 |
+7.41% |
+16.06%
Sep 1950 - Aug 1963 |
3.64%
27 out of 742 |
+3.08%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011 |
+9.85% |
+18.29%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1964 |
0.00%
0 out of 730 |
-1.49%
Aug 1968 - Jul 1982 |
+7.44% |
+16.23%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1964 |
1.64%
12 out of 730 |
+3.58%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982 |
+9.53% |
+18.23%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1965 |
0.00%
0 out of 718 |
-1.00%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982 |
+7.13% |
+15.90%
Feb 1950 - Jan 1965 |
0.97%
7 out of 718 |
+4.22%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2016 |
+9.38% |
+17.91%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1965 |
0.00%
0 out of 706 |
+0.09%
Aug 1966 - Jul 1982 |
+7.00% |
+15.44%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1965 |
0.00%
0 out of 706 |
+4.46%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982 |
+8.99% |
+17.47%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 694 |
+0.08%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982 |
+6.43% |
+14.93%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 694 |
+4.60%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982 |
+8.72% |
+17.04%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 682 |
+0.23%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982 |
+6.14% |
+14.42%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 682 |
+4.93%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+8.82% |
+16.43%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1968 |
0.00%
0 out of 670 |
+1.21%
Aug 1963 - Jul 1982 |
+6.40% |
+14.03%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1968 |
0.00%
0 out of 670 |
+4.55%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+8.78% |
+15.84%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 658 |
+1.54%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982 |
+6.33% |
+12.90%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 658 |
+6.87%
May 1998 - Apr 2023 |
+9.51% |
+15.12%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 598 |
+3.02%
Aug 1959 - Jul 1984 |
+7.03% |
+11.81%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 598 |
+8.17%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1991 |
+9.84% |
+12.58%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 538 |
+4.49%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1991 |
+7.08% |
+9.11%
Jan 1975 - Dec 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 538 |
Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) to EUR Hedged ETF: Historical Returns