Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) to EUR: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from August 1953 to September 2024 (~71 years)
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) to EUR ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~71 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 154 months (from April 2000 to January 2013).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 155 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET (VTI) TO EUR ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)

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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 14.25%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET (VTI) TO EUR ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET (VTI) TO EUR ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-39.37%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+12.24% +86.10%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
25.03%
211 out of 843
-40.78%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+9.24% +80.93%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
29.89%
252 out of 843
-28.57%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
+11.52% +45.99%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000
16.37%
136 out of 831
-33.12%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
+9.12% +43.73%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000
22.38%
186 out of 831
-19.85%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+11.19% +41.53%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983
14.29%
117 out of 819
-21.70%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+8.25% +37.94%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
20.27%
166 out of 819
-12.68%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2004
+11.12% +35.50%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
14.87%
120 out of 807
-15.71%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974
+8.42% +33.49%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
21.56%
174 out of 807
-8.49%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+11.61% +34.19%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
13.58%
108 out of 795
-13.50%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+8.46% +32.07%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
22.14%
176 out of 795
-7.94%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+10.90% +31.85%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
11.11%
87 out of 783
-12.51%
Jan 1969 - Dec 1974
+8.41% +27.01%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000
21.46%
168 out of 783
-8.07%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+11.03% +28.30%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
8.95%
69 out of 771
-9.96%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+8.22% +23.15%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
17.64%
136 out of 771
-7.33%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+10.57% +26.75%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
5.27%
40 out of 759
-9.28%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+7.85% +24.15%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
18.05%
137 out of 759
-8.00%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+10.68% +24.35%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
6.69%
50 out of 747
-9.92%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+8.10% +21.38%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
17.14%
128 out of 747
-4.48%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010
+10.44% +24.59%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
5.85%
43 out of 735
-6.37%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010
+8.07% +21.68%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
16.19%
119 out of 735
-3.62%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+10.36% +20.49%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
4.98%
36 out of 723
-5.58%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+7.93% +16.79%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999
16.87%
122 out of 723
-0.93%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+10.56% +20.77%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999
2.25%
16 out of 711
-3.03%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+8.19% +17.74%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999
15.05%
107 out of 711
+0.15%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+10.46% +19.45%
Nov 1987 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 699
-2.48%
Nov 1965 - Oct 1978
+7.95% +16.50%
Nov 1987 - Oct 2000
10.30%
72 out of 699
+1.53%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+10.43% +17.04%
Oct 1986 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 687
-1.68%
Nov 1964 - Oct 1978
+7.71% +14.31%
Oct 1986 - Sep 2000
5.53%
38 out of 687
+2.77%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+10.23% +17.56%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 675
-0.72%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
+7.49% +14.72%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024
2.22%
15 out of 675
+3.26%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
+9.96% +17.44%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 663
-0.03%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
+7.04% +14.69%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998
0.15%
1 out of 663
+3.61%
Nov 1961 - Oct 1978
+9.87% +17.77%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 651
-0.17%
Nov 1961 - Oct 1978
+6.37% +15.22%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.15%
1 out of 651
+4.14%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
+9.45% +18.71%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 639
+0.78%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1979
+6.20% +15.66%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 639
+4.50%
Nov 1959 - Oct 1978
+9.26% +18.50%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 627
+0.92%
Nov 1959 - Oct 1978
+6.20% +15.50%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 627
+4.23%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+9.41% +19.38%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 615
+1.62%
Aug 1959 - Jul 1979
+6.15% +16.34%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 615
+6.60%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2010
+9.76% +17.77%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 555
+3.91%
Nov 1965 - Oct 1990
+6.59% +14.38%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1999
0.00%
0 out of 555
+8.57%
Sep 1983 - Aug 2013
+10.43% +14.10%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 495
+5.03%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1991
+7.61% +10.35%
Jul 1970 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 495
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